Abstract
This study examines
the long-term effects of graduating during weak economic conditions on the
careers of Chinese university graduates. Using panel data from the China Family
Panel Studies and national unemployment statistics from 2010 to 2020, I estimate
baseline and fixed effect regression models to measure the impact of the
unemployment rate at graduation on income and employment. Results show that a
1% increase in the graduation-year unemployment rate reduced employment
probability by 0.05% points and lowered the annual income by roughly ¥460
($64), with effects persisting even after controlling for time shocks. The
findings highlight the need for support targeting graduates during economic
downturns.
